CASE STUDY: PREDICTING THE NEXT STRIKE
Total # of labor strike events that
SELDN predicted in advance,
from March 2015 to August 2015
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SELDN Labor Strikes Prediction: Case Study
The ability to predict labor strikes is essential to the development and productivity of supply chains. In our case study, we use GDELT and the World Bank's WDI dataset to make labor strike predictions for 12 different countries. From March 2015 to August 2015, Seldn was capable of accurately predicting 62 labor strike events in advance. With this knowledge, supply chains would have the capability of taking precautionary measures to mitigate any potential losses that may have resulted from the labor strikes. For example, the West Coast Port Strikes of 2012 possessed an economic cost of nearly $1 Billion USD per day. Being aware of future labor strikes can allow a supply chain to have alternate shipment routes, cover shortages, and reduce or avoid vital part shortages and stock-outs.
SELDN Strike Prediction Record
SELDN Prediction Accuracy
HOW SELDN PREDICTS LABOR STRIKES
Seldn's Labor Strike 1.0 model is built to predict which countries will and will not experience labor strikes in each month, 6 months into the future. Initial predictions for strikes have been conducted using a target dataset of global labor strikes. The Dataset was created using Natural Language Processing of global media coverage (See the GDELT project). Only GDELT and the World Bank's WDI dataset were used in the model. These predictions are limited to twelve countries (See list below), due to a lack of recent data across a broad number of development indicators from other countries in the WDI data set necessary for accurate prediction.
When this model predicts a Strike, it is correct 4 out of 5 times. When it predicts a No-Strike, it is correct 9 out of 10 times. Current predictions have an overall accuracy of 88% with a p-value of 81%. This compares favorably against the benchmark of always making the safe prediction - 85%.